Starts from 2026 AVG, then applies a recent-form delta (last 15 games vs season), probable-starter ERA vs a 4.20 baseline, and a handedness adjustment. Players with partial data still surface — missing inputs are treated as neutral.

Built daily from the public MLB Stats API (schedule, rosters, season + gameLog hitting, probable pitchers). Lineups update when teams post them, typically 2–3 hours before first pitch.

Hit probabilities are directional projections, not sportsbook lines. Use alongside confirmed lineups and late news — weather, bullpen usage, and swing-man starters can materially shift the true edge.